Growth
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The broadest measure of US economic output, reported as an annualized quarterly growth rate.
Next GDP release
8:30 a.m. ETin 19 days
Data for Q3 2026 · Advance estimate
After that
- (Second)
- (Third)
- (Advance)
- (Second)
Source: BEA release schedule ↗ · checked Oct 10, 2026. Agencies can reschedule; confirm before trading.
- Released by
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
- Frequency
- Quarterly (advance, second and third estimates)
- Release time
- 8:30 a.m. ET
- Typical timing
- Advance estimate about four weeks after quarter-end, followed by two monthly updates Official schedule ↗
What GDP measures
Gross domestic product is the value of all final goods and services produced in the US. The BEA reports real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth as a seasonally adjusted annualized rate — the pace the economy would grow if the quarter's rate continued for a year.
Each quarter receives an advance estimate, then second and third estimates as more source data arrive. The report also includes the GDP price index and core PCE inflation for the quarter.
Why traders watch it
GDP is the definitive read on growth, but it is backward-looking and much of it can be estimated from earlier monthly data. Nowcasts such as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow narrow the room for surprise.
Markets often focus on composition — consumer spending, business investment, and the swing factors of inventories and net exports — and on the quarterly inflation figures in the same report.
What to look at in the release
| Real GDP q/q annualized | Headline growth rate |
| Personal consumption | The largest component |
| Final sales to private domestic purchasers | Strips out inventories, trade and government |
| GDP price index / core PCE (quarterly) | Inflation readings in the same report |
How markets tend to interpret it
Relative to consensus expectations — not the absolute level.
Stronger / hotter than expected
Stronger growth can support equities and lift yields; if paired with firm inflation, it can strengthen expectations of tighter policy.
Weaker / cooler than expected
Weaker growth can raise recession concern, lower yields and pressure cyclical assets.
Context matters. Inventories and net exports can swing headline growth sharply without reflecting underlying demand. The advance estimate is frequently revised.
Historical data
% SAAR · last 38 observations
Show recent data
| Date | Value (% SAAR) |
|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | 2.2 |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2.5 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 0.2 |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 3.9 |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 4.0 |
| Jan 1, 2025 | 0.1 |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 2.4 |
| Jul 1, 2024 | 3.2 |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3.6 |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 1.4 |
| Oct 1, 2023 | 3.6 |
| Jul 1, 2023 | 4.5 |
Markets that watch GDP
Each note explains the channel for that market; reactions are tendencies, not rules.
| Market | Why it can matter |
|---|---|
| US 10Y | Growth estimates feed the real-rate component of longer yields. The advance estimate tends to matter most; the second and third estimates rarely move the 10-year unless they change the growth picture. |
| WTI Crude | Oil demand rises and falls with economic activity, so a growth surprise can shift demand expectations; the US is only one part of global consumption, which limits the effect of a single report. |
| Copper | Copper is one of the most growth-sensitive commodities; a US growth surprise can move it, though Chinese data and mine supply disruptions often matter more. |
GDP FAQ
What is an annualized GDP growth rate?
It is the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters. A 0.5% quarter-over-quarter increase is roughly 2% annualized.
Why are there three GDP estimates?
The BEA publishes an advance estimate quickly using incomplete data, then updates it twice as more complete source data become available. Later annual and comprehensive updates can revise it further.