Inflation
PCE Price Index
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge; its 2% target is defined in terms of PCE inflation.
Next PCE release
8:30 a.m. ETin 19 days
Data for September 2026
After that
Source: BEA release schedule ↗ · checked Oct 10, 2026. Agencies can reschedule; confirm before trading.
- Released by
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
- Frequency
- Monthly (Personal Income and Outlays report)
- Release time
- 8:30 a.m. ET
- Typical timing
- Usually in the last week of the month, covering the prior month Official schedule ↗
What PCE measures
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index measures prices for goods and services consumed by households, including spending made on their behalf (such as employer-paid health insurance). It is published by the BEA in the monthly Personal Income and Outlays report, alongside personal income and spending.
PCE has broader coverage than CPI, uses different weights (shelter carries less weight) and adjusts more quickly as consumers substitute between goods. As a result, PCE inflation has usually run somewhat below CPI inflation.
Why traders watch it
The Fed's 2% inflation objective is stated in terms of PCE. Core PCE is the measure the Fed most often cites when assessing underlying inflation.
Because CPI and PPI are released earlier, economists can often estimate core PCE closely in advance, so the market reaction is frequently smaller than for CPI — unless the estimate misses or revisions are significant.
What to look at in the release
| Headline PCE y/y | All items |
| Core PCE m/m and y/y | Excludes food and energy; the Fed's main focus |
| Personal income and spending | Read on consumer demand |
| Saving rate | Household cushion for future spending |
How markets tend to interpret it
Relative to consensus expectations — not the absolute level.
Stronger / hotter than expected
Firmer-than-expected core PCE can reinforce concern about persistent inflation and lift short-term yields.
Weaker / cooler than expected
Softer-than-expected core PCE can support expectations of easier policy.
Context matters. Since much of the PCE outcome is anticipated from CPI and PPI, the surprise relative to updated estimates matters more than the raw comparison with earlier forecasts.
Historical data
% y/y · last 10 years
Show recent data
| Date | Value (% y/y) |
|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | 3.0 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 3.0 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 3.0 |
| May 1, 2026 | 3.2 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 3.1 |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 3.1 |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3.0 |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2.9 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2.9 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2.7 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 2.7 |
| Sep 1, 2025 | 2.8 |
% y/y · last 10 years
Show recent data
| Date | Value (% y/y) |
|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | 3.4 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 3.4 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 3.5 |
| May 1, 2026 | 3.8 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 3.6 |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 3.4 |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2.8 |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2.7 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2.8 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2.7 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 2.7 |
| Sep 1, 2025 | 2.8 |
Markets that watch PCE
Each note explains the channel for that market; reactions are tendencies, not rules.
| Market | Why it can matter |
|---|---|
| US 2Y | The Fed’s 2% target is defined using headline PCE inflation; core PCE helps assess underlying inflation. Because CPI and PPI let forecasters estimate it in advance, the 2-year usually reacts less than to CPI unless the print or revisions miss those estimates. |
| Gold | As the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, PCE can shift real-rate expectations, though gold's reaction is usually smaller than to CPI because the result is largely estimated in advance. |
PCE FAQ
Why does the Fed prefer PCE over CPI?
PCE covers a broader range of spending, including purchases made on households' behalf, and its weights update as consumers substitute between products. The Fed considers it a more comprehensive measure of inflation.
Why is PCE usually lower than CPI?
Mainly because of differences in weights (shelter is a smaller share of PCE), scope and formula. The gap varies over time.