Interest Rates & Bonds
US 2-Year Treasury Yield
The most policy-sensitive point on the Treasury curve; a market read on the Fed's path over the next two years.
US 2Y, daily
- Treasury yield
- Daily · not live
- FRED:DGS2
Daily data, not a live quote. This chart plots FRED series DGS2, the Federal Reserve's official 2-year Treasury constant-maturity yield: one value per business day, usually posted the following business day.
About the US 2Y
The 2-year Treasury yield reflects what investors expect the Federal Reserve's policy rate to average over the next two years, plus a small term premium. That makes it the part of the curve most sensitive to FOMC decisions and to data that changes the Fed outlook.
When markets price in rate cuts, the 2-year yield tends to fall below the fed funds rate; when they expect hikes, it tends to sit above it.
The 2-year yield is also a key input to currency markets. The gap between US and foreign 2-year yields is a widely watched driver of the dollar.
What moves US 2Y
Common drivers. None of them determine price on their own.
- FOMC decisions and guidance
- The statement, dot plot and press conference can reprice the expected path of rates immediately.
- Inflation and labor data
- CPI, PCE and payrolls change how restrictive the Fed is expected to be.
- Fed communication
- Speeches and minutes between meetings can shift expectations, particularly when the outlook is uncertain.
US 2Y trading hours
Regular schedules in US Eastern time unless noted. Holidays and early closes are not shown.
| Venue | Hours | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Cash Treasuries (OTC) | Nearly 24 hours on weekdays | — |
| 2-Year T-Note futures ZT (CME Globex) | Sun–Fri 6:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. ET (daily 5:00–6:00 p.m. ET break) | — |
Economic events that matter for US 2Y
Why each release can move this market. Reactions depend on the surprise versus expectations and on the backdrop.
| Event | Why it can matter for US 2Y |
|---|---|
| FOMC Next: | The 2-year yield is largely a forecast of where the fed funds rate is expected to average over the next two years, so a surprise in the decision, the statement or the dot plot can reprice it directly. It often moves more than longer maturities on Fed days. |
| CPI Next: | Hotter-than-expected inflation can push expectations toward tighter or longer-restrictive Fed policy, which the 2-year tends to price within minutes; softer prints can do the reverse. Core and services details often matter more than the headline. |
| NFP Next: | Payrolls, wages and the unemployment rate together reshape the expected Fed path, so the 2-year can reprice sharply at 8:30 a.m. ET on jobs day — especially when revisions or wage growth surprise along with the headline. |
| PCE Next: | The Fed’s 2% target is defined using headline PCE inflation; core PCE helps assess underlying inflation. Because CPI and PPI let forecasters estimate it in advance, the 2-year usually reacts less than to CPI unless the print or revisions miss those estimates. |
| PPI Next: | Several PPI components — airfares, health care, portfolio management fees — feed directly into core PCE, so forecasters revise their PCE estimates after PPI. That can move the 2-year even when headline PPI is in line. |
| Jobless Claims Next: | As the only weekly labor-market read, a sustained rise or fall in claims can nudge rate expectations between payroll reports. Single weeks are noisy, so the 4-week trend tends to carry more weight. |
US 2Y FAQ
Why does the 2-year yield follow the Fed?
Over a two-year horizon, the return on Treasuries is dominated by the policy rate the Fed is expected to set. Changes in Fed expectations therefore show up quickly in the 2-year yield.
What happens to the 2-year yield on a strong jobs report?
A stronger-than-expected report can push yields up if it makes rate cuts look less likely, but the reaction depends on the details (wages, revisions, unemployment) and on what was already expected.