Business surveys
ISM Manufacturing PMI
A monthly survey of purchasing managers at US manufacturers; readings above 50 indicate expansion.
Next ISM Mfg release
10:00 a.m. ETin 23 days
Data for October 2026
After that
Source: ISM Report On Business calendar ↗ · checked Oct 10, 2026. Agencies can reschedule; confirm before trading.
- Frequency
- Monthly
- Release time
- 10:00 a.m. ET
- Typical timing
- First business day of the month, covering the prior month Official schedule ↗
What ISM Mfg measures
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite diffusion index built from a monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives at US manufacturing firms. It combines new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories.
A reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing activity is generally expanding; below 50, contracting. It is one of the earliest monthly snapshots of the economy.
Why traders watch it
Manufacturing is cyclical, so the ISM survey is watched as a leading signal for the broader economy. The prices paid sub-index is an early read on goods inflation pressures.
Because it is released at 10:00 a.m. ET on the first business day of the month, it can set the tone for the week — especially in jobs-report weeks.
What to look at in the release
| Headline PMI | 50 = no change; above = expansion |
| New orders | Forward-looking demand |
| Prices paid | Input cost pressures |
| Employment | Factory hiring trends |
How markets tend to interpret it
Relative to consensus expectations — not the absolute level.
Stronger / hotter than expected
A higher-than-expected reading can lift growth expectations and support cyclical assets and yields.
Weaker / cooler than expected
A lower-than-expected reading can raise growth concern and pull yields lower.
Context matters. Manufacturing is a relatively small share of US GDP, and the services survey can tell a different story. A rising prices index alongside weak activity can complicate interpretation.
Historical data
ISM survey data is proprietary and is not redistributed through FRED, so no historical chart is shown. Historical reports are available from ISM.
Markets that watch ISM Mfg
Each note explains the channel for that market; reactions are tendencies, not rules.
| Market | Why it can matter |
|---|---|
| Dow | Industrial companies carry meaningful weight in the price-weighted Dow, so the manufacturing survey's new orders and production readings speak directly to a sizeable part of the index. |
| WTI Crude | Factory activity is a proxy for industrial fuel demand, and crude can react to growth signals in the survey — though supply news (OPEC+, inventories) usually dominates oil's moves. |
| Copper | Copper is used throughout construction, wiring and machinery, so the manufacturing survey — especially new orders — is a direct read on US industrial demand, even though China is the largest consumer. |
| Silver | Roughly half of silver demand is industrial (electronics, solar panels), so manufacturing surveys can matter for silver in a way they usually don't for gold. |
| AUD/USD | As a commodity-linked currency, the Australian dollar can respond to manufacturing signals that affect demand for industrial commodities such as iron ore, one of Australia's largest exports. |
ISM Mfg FAQ
What does a PMI above 50 mean?
The PMI is a diffusion index: it summarizes how many respondents report improvement versus deterioration. A reading above 50 means more firms reported expansion than contraction.
What time is the ISM Manufacturing PMI released?
At 10:00 a.m. ET, usually on the first business day of the month.