Interest Rates & Bonds
US 10-Year Treasury Yield
The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note — a reference rate for mortgages, corporate borrowing and equity valuations.
US 10Y, daily
- Treasury yield
- Daily · not live
- FRED:DGS10
Daily data, not a live quote. This chart plots FRED series DGS10, the Federal Reserve's official 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield: one value per business day, usually posted the following business day.
About the US 10Y
The 10-year Treasury yield is the annual return an investor earns by buying the benchmark 10-year US government note at today's price and holding it to maturity. It moves inversely to the note's price.
It is one of the most important prices in global finance. It anchors US mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs, and equity analysts use it as a reference when valuing future earnings.
Long-term yields combine expectations for the path of short-term rates with a term premium — the extra compensation investors demand for holding a longer bond. Inflation expectations, growth, Treasury supply and global demand all feed in.
What moves US 10Y
Common drivers. None of them determine price on their own.
- Inflation expectations
- Higher expected inflation generally requires higher nominal yields. CPI, PCE and wage data feed directly into this.
- Fed policy path
- Expected future policy rates over the next decade make up much of the 10-year yield. FOMC statements, projections and the press conference can reprice it.
- Growth outlook
- Strong growth data tends to support higher yields, while recession fears tend to pull long yields lower, though supply and term premium can override this.
- Supply and term premium
- Treasury refunding announcements, deficits and auction results can move the term premium independently of the Fed.
US 10Y trading hours
Regular schedules in US Eastern time unless noted. Holidays and early closes are not shown.
| Venue | Hours | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Cash Treasuries (OTC) | Nearly 24 hours on weekdays across Asia, London and New York | Most liquidity during US hours; SIFMA sets holiday early closes |
| 10-Year T-Note futures ZN (CME Globex) | Sun–Fri 6:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. ET (daily 5:00–6:00 p.m. ET break) | — |
Economic events that matter for US 10Y
Why each release can move this market. Reactions depend on the surprise versus expectations and on the backdrop.
| Event | Why it can matter for US 10Y |
|---|---|
| CPI Next: | Hotter-than-expected inflation can shift expectations toward tighter Fed policy or higher-for-longer rates, putting upward pressure on Treasury yields. Softer inflation can have the opposite effect, though growth and positioning also matter. |
| FOMC Next: | The 10-year reflects the expected policy path plus a term premium, so it can react to the decision, the dot plot's longer-run rate and balance-sheet guidance. Its move is often smaller than the 2-year's, and can even go the other way if markets read policy as too tight for growth. |
| NFP Next: | Strong jobs data can lift the 10-year through both higher expected policy rates and a better growth outlook; weak data can pull it lower as traders price slower growth and earlier cuts. |
| Core CPI Next: | Persistent core inflation, especially in services, bears on how long rates stay restrictive and on longer-run inflation expectations — both of which are embedded in the 10-year rather than just the next few Fed meetings. |
| GDP Next: | Growth estimates feed the real-rate component of longer yields. The advance estimate tends to matter most; the second and third estimates rarely move the 10-year unless they change the growth picture. |
US 10Y FAQ
Why do bond prices fall when yields rise?
A Treasury note pays fixed coupons. If market yields rise, newly issued notes pay more, so existing notes must fall in price until their effective yield matches the market.
Why does the 10-year yield matter for stocks?
It is a common discount rate and an alternative to owning equities. Higher yields can weigh on valuations, especially for long-duration growth stocks, but the effect depends on why yields are moving — rising growth expectations can coincide with rising stocks.
What is the 2s10s spread?
It is the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield. A negative value is called an inverted yield curve and has historically preceded many US recessions, though the timing has varied widely and it is not a reliable short-term signal.