Inflation
Core CPI
CPI excluding food and energy — the market's preferred read on underlying consumer inflation in the CPI report.
Next Core CPI release
8:30 a.m. ETin 4 days
Data for September 2026
Published in the same BLS Consumer Price Index release as Consumer Price Index.
After that
Source: BLS CPI release schedule ↗ · checked Oct 10, 2026. Agencies can reschedule; confirm before trading.
- Released by
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
- Frequency
- Monthly (part of the CPI release)
- Release time
- 8:30 a.m. ET
- Typical timing
- Same release as headline CPI Official schedule ↗
What Core CPI measures
Core CPI is the Consumer Price Index for all items less food and energy. It is published in the same BLS release as headline CPI.
Excluding volatile categories gives a steadier view of trend inflation. Traders tend to focus on the seasonally adjusted month-over-month change, often to two decimal places, because small differences compound into a meaningful annualized rate.
Why traders watch it
Because headline inflation can swing with gasoline and food prices, the Fed and markets lean on core measures to judge whether inflation is moving sustainably toward target.
A 0.1 percentage-point surprise in monthly core CPI is roughly a 1.2-point difference in annualized terms, which is why seemingly small misses can move rates markets.
What to look at in the release
| Core goods | Vehicles, apparel, household goods; sensitive to supply chains and tariffs |
| Core services | Shelter, medical care, transportation services, insurance |
| Supercore | Core services excluding shelter; an informal but widely watched measure |
How markets tend to interpret it
Relative to consensus expectations — not the absolute level.
Stronger / hotter than expected
A firmer core reading can signal that inflation is more persistent, which has tended to push expected policy rates and short-term yields higher.
Weaker / cooler than expected
A softer core reading can support expectations of easier policy, often pulling yields lower.
Context matters. Markets weigh the composition — a surprise driven by a volatile item such as airfares may be discounted relative to one driven by services broadly.
Historical data
% y/y · last 10 years
Show recent data
| Date | Value (% y/y) |
|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | 2.4 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 2.5 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 2.6 |
| May 1, 2026 | 2.8 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 2.7 |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2.6 |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2.5 |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2.5 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2.6 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2.6 |
| Sep 1, 2025 | 3.0 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 3.1 |
% m/m · last 33 observations
Show recent data
| Date | Value (% m/m) |
|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | 0.29 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 0.22 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | -0.02 |
| May 1, 2026 | 0.21 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 0.38 |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 0.20 |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 0.22 |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 0.30 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 0.23 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 0.19 |
| Sep 1, 2025 | 0.22 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 0.31 |
Markets that watch Core CPI
Each note explains the channel for that market; reactions are tendencies, not rules.
| Market | Why it can matter |
|---|---|
| US 10Y | Persistent core inflation, especially in services, bears on how long rates stay restrictive and on longer-run inflation expectations — both of which are embedded in the 10-year rather than just the next few Fed meetings. |
Core CPI FAQ
Why does core CPI exclude food and energy?
Food and energy prices are volatile and often driven by supply shocks that monetary policy cannot address directly. Excluding them helps identify the underlying trend.
Is core CPI more important than headline?
For policy expectations, traders usually give core more weight. Headline still matters for consumers and for inflation expectations, especially when energy prices move sharply.