Inflation
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The most-watched measure of US consumer inflation, tracking prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services.
Next CPI release
8:30 a.m. ETin 4 days
Data for September 2026
Published in the same BLS Consumer Price Index release as Core CPI.
After that
Source: BLS CPI release schedule ↗ · checked Oct 10, 2026. Agencies can reschedule; confirm before trading.
- Released by
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
- Frequency
- Monthly
- Release time
- 8:30 a.m. ET
- Typical timing
- Usually in the second or third week of the month, covering the prior month Official schedule ↗
What CPI measures
The Consumer Price Index measures the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services, including food, energy, shelter, apparel, transportation, medical care and more.
The headline figure most traders discuss is CPI-U, seasonally adjusted, reported as a month-over-month change and a year-over-year change. Shelter is the largest single component, accounting for roughly a third of the index.
Why traders watch it
Inflation is central to the Federal Reserve's mandate, so CPI directly shapes expectations for interest rates. Because it is released before the PCE price index for the same month, CPI is usually the first comprehensive read on monthly inflation.
Markets react to the difference between the actual print and consensus forecasts — and to the details. A headline number in line with expectations can still move markets if core services or shelter surprise.
What to look at in the release
| Headline CPI m/m and y/y | All items, seasonally adjusted (m/m) and unadjusted (y/y) |
| Core CPI | Excludes food and energy; viewed as a better signal of underlying trend |
| Shelter | Rent and owners' equivalent rent; the largest weight and slow-moving |
| Core services ex-shelter | Closely watched as a gauge of wage-driven inflation |
| Energy and food | Volatile; drive headline away from core |
How markets tend to interpret it
Relative to consensus expectations — not the absolute level.
Stronger / hotter than expected
A hotter-than-expected print can raise expectations for tighter Fed policy, which has often lifted short-term Treasury yields and the dollar and weighed on rate-sensitive assets.
Weaker / cooler than expected
A softer-than-expected print can lower expected policy rates, which has often pulled yields and the dollar lower.
Context matters. These are tendencies, not rules. The reaction depends on what was priced in, which components drove the surprise, revisions, and the broader backdrop. The same surprise can produce different reactions in different regimes.
Historical data
% y/y · last 10 years
Show recent data
| Date | Value (% y/y) |
|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | 3.4 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 3.3 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 3.5 |
| May 1, 2026 | 4.2 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 3.8 |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 3.3 |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2.4 |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2.4 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2.7 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2.7 |
| Sep 1, 2025 | 3.0 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 2.9 |
Markets that watch CPI
Each note explains the channel for that market; reactions are tendencies, not rules.
| Market | Why it can matter |
|---|---|
| US 2Y | Hotter-than-expected inflation can push expectations toward tighter or longer-restrictive Fed policy, which the 2-year tends to price within minutes; softer prints can do the reverse. Core and services details often matter more than the headline. |
| US 10Y | Hotter-than-expected inflation can shift expectations toward tighter Fed policy or higher-for-longer rates, putting upward pressure on Treasury yields. Softer inflation can have the opposite effect, though growth and positioning also matter. |
| DXY | Inflation surprises shift the expected US rate path relative to other central banks. Because the euro makes up about 58% of the index, DXY's CPI reaction often mirrors EUR/USD's in reverse. |
| S&P 500 | Inflation surprises matter for stocks mainly through rates: a hot print can lift yields and pressure valuations, a cool one can ease them. With CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET, the first reaction shows up in index futures and CFDs before the cash open. |
| Nasdaq 100 | Large-cap tech and growth stocks are valued on cash flows far in the future, so they are often more sensitive than the broader market to the yield moves that follow an inflation surprise. |
| Gold | Inflation surprises can move real yields and the US dollar, both of which are major inputs for gold. The direction is not mechanical: a hot print can weigh on gold if it lifts real yields, or support it if it raises demand for inflation hedges. |
| EUR/USD | US inflation surprises move Treasury yields relative to German Bund yields, a spread that has historically been one of the main drivers of EUR/USD. |
| USD/JPY | Changes in Treasury yields after an inflation surprise have historically been among the strongest drivers of USD/JPY, because the pair is closely tied to the US–Japan rate differential. |
Also covered on: VIX, Dow, Russell 2000, WTI Crude, Silver, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, Bitcoin, Ethereum
CPI FAQ
What time is CPI released?
The BLS releases CPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The exact date varies each month and is published in advance on the BLS release schedule.
What is the difference between headline and core CPI?
Headline CPI includes all items. Core CPI excludes food and energy, which are volatile, to give a clearer view of underlying inflation trends.
Is CPI the Fed's preferred inflation measure?
No. The Fed's 2% target is defined in terms of the PCE price index, published by the BEA. CPI still matters because it is released earlier and feeds into PCE estimates.
How does CPI affect forex?
CPI changes expectations for Fed policy, and currencies are sensitive to relative interest-rate expectations. A surprise in either direction can move the dollar against most currencies, though the size and even direction of the move depend on context.
Can the CPI release date change?
Yes. Schedules can shift, for example during a federal government shutdown. Always confirm on the official BLS schedule.